Milk in key exporting regions
%-change versus previous year
Europe
Western EU spot milk prices quickly bounced back up above EUR 0.50 after the holiday break
Prices in most of the liquid categories quickly recovered after the Christmas break. German milk temporarily dipped below EUR 0.50 prior to Christmas but has since then bounced back up to above that level. In most other Western EU countries prices also are above EUR 0.50 again. Even in France, despite its lower content levels. French milk production fell considerably below last year’s levels again in the final weeks of 2024. These prices are more or less in line with their commodity equivalents but availability is limited. Cream prices are at EUR 8.40-8.50 and slightly higher in Eastern EU. The spread with butter has normalized to about EUR 500/t. Ireland’s November milk production data produced a spectacular +31% compared to last year but please keep in mind that winter volumes are low, so the volume impact of that impressive percentage increase is relatively small.
Americas
California still pulls US milk production growth below 0%
Although milk production in most of the country is more or less stable, the fall in California’s milk output pulled the US November production number down to a minus 1%. Avian Flu will likely have gone through the herd sometime in Q1 but until that time US milk output will be held back and US SMP for instance will not be competitive in export markets. Heifer replacement is still expensive but many new production lines are waiting for more milk so we are bound to see a return to growth for US milk production sometime in H1.
Asia-Pacific
NZ product availability is expected to remain strong
Local comments about New Zealand milk production indicate that the strong performance in the first half of the season will most likely sustain in the remainder of the season. Growth rates may even increase from the plus 2% where we were in Oktober and November as the shoulder of last year was relatively weak due to adverse weather. So product availability at GDT and outside GDT is expected to remain strong, despite Australia’s milk production falling below last year’s levels for the first time since early 2023.
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