Milk in key
exporting regions
“Other EU” is the change in the aggregated milk production volume of all other EU member states except for the ones displayed individually in this graph. The individual countries displayed usually have finalised figures for the most recent months, but the other EU category inevitably has a higher degree of estimation.
Volume change versus previous year
Europe
Surplus milk situation gradually comes to an end in the EU
Due to the heatwaves in the EU, manufacturers became more cautious about their offerings as they were unsure about the resulting volatility of milk output from one week to the next. When the buyers returned to the market, offers were no longer as abundant as before the holidays. Most Western EU countries still produce a couple of percents above last year's strong volumes but EU milk supply growth is no longer driven by each and every single country. In Germany milk production is still above last year's levels as well but lower than budgeted volumes in August pushed spot milk prices to elevated levels. Prices in the range of EUR 0.55-0.57/kg are paid for VLOG milk, while conventional milk trades around EUR 0.50/kg. By comparison, in the Netherlands and France spot milk trades at EUR 0.44-0.45/kg, which is also higher than current pay out prices but significantly lower than in Germany. Cream is still very expensive at price levels of EUR 5/kg and higher but appears to be correcting downward at the moment. SMC trades at around EUR 3.20/kg fueled by strong demand from Greece amongst others. This current SMC price is obviously much too close to the SMP price to allow for powder production.
Americas
Strong demand for skimmed solids offsets the ongoing strength of US milk production
US milk production shows no signs of weakening. It started shifting gears very early in 2025 and since then milk production stacked growth upon growth. This trend continues in July and is expected to continue for some time based on herd numbers and productivity data. Nevertheless, availability of skimmed milk solids remains tight due to the strong demand for UF milk for ready to drink applications. The cream market is a bit looser but has also firmed up over the last couple of months. Prices have not really appreciated too much yet, but particularly in the Midwest and the East the cream market feels firmer than earlier in the year.
Asia-Pacific
The market still waits for the first data about the start of the Oceania season
Actual data about the start of the new season in Oceania are still not shared but everyone seems to count on a positive start. Weather conditions are good. El Nino is often quoted as the main development that can break or make the season this year, but if it does it will most likely affect the second half of the season rather than the next couple of months running up to peak production in October and November. Next month everyone will know how the season has kicked off, but right now there are no signs whatsoever that there will not be a lot of Oceania milk finding its way into the global market.
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