SMP
Global demand is no longer a strong as last month
Europe
Buyside is taking a breather
The EU SMP market in the first week of June is quiet. The buyside generally refrains from taking action which is cause and effect of the price fall that occurred recently. At the current price of EUR 2600-2750 ex works domestic buyers can afford to wait and exploit the weaker sentiment, as the order books are largely filled for most of 2026 already. In the export markets EU origin is very competitive and product is being shipped to all major destinations. In Q3 and Q4 competition with US origin may intensify again though, if the backwardation in the US futures price for NFDM continues to be as large as it is now.
Americas
NFDM price continues to soar
The tightness on the US NFDM market continued throughout May and the spot price even briefly reached USD 2.28/lb. However, the market cooled off a little when Mexican buyers decided that they had generated enough inventories in the past months of above average forward buying. The spot price fell several cents and has since been looking for direction. In the first week of June the market price for NFDM is USD 2.10-2.15/lb (4630-4740/t) ex works, which is significantly above EU and NZ levels. With exports being out of the question there may be a slim chance that US inventories can start to build. However, there continues to be a tightness in skim milk concentrate supply in the Midwest and the East and this urges some buyers to look at Californian NFDM, which can be transported there at a cost of some USD 0.10/lb. Overall the expectation is that US prices may stay elevated compared to EU and NZ origins, but whether the equilibrium price level will be around USD 2.10/lb or in the USD 1.70-1.80s/lb range is still everybody’s guess.
Asia-Pacific
Slow demand in the off season
The APAC market is quiet, which makes sense as regional supply is at the seasonal low point. Outside of GDT there is hardly any Oceania supply and on GDT the sales volumes are small. This also makes it difficult to get a sense for the market, as the price that forms on GDT is susceptible to one or two buyers that are in urgent need of product. Most buyers in the region can afford to wait until Oceanian supply ramps up seasonally towards the peak levels in November. The biggest players have built security stocks when the situation around the Hormuz strait began to escalate. The current price level is about USD 3500 FOB for Oceania product. EU powder, though very competitively priced at levels of about 3200-3300 CIF Asia, continues to be met with hesitance from the buyside as factory approvals have generally expired due to the EUs long absence on the export markets.
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