Butter
US prices appear to have reached the bottom, this is far from true for EU and New Zealand
Europe
Butter price drops by 20% in one month
The EU butter price fell by EUR 400 in the first week of December only, after a steady downward trend all during November. The supply of milk and particularly cream are abundant and demand is slowing down. The current price is EUR 4000 ex works, a level that we last quoted in the early fall of 2021. Most of the buyside is covered well into Q2 but the sell side still carries quite some volumes of butter for spot delivery. Imported butter from the US and New Zealand continue to land in the EU until early Q1 and this means that there is probably further downward price potential. At some point latent demand may come to the surface, but at the current price level the EU has no role to play on the export markets. There is EU demand for Q3 and Q4 at price levels of below EUR 5000 but this does not bring much relief to the sell side that has butter on their hands for sales right now.
Americas
US butter price is likely bottoming out
The US bulk butter price has not really shifted in the past month, but as the prices in the EU and Oceania are dropping swiftly, the market situation is changing nonetheless. All during 2025, the US bulk butter price has been kept at a relatively low level because of quite high stock volumes of salted bulk butter, most of which is going to become old-crop butter by the end of February. This stock of old crop butter has very different market dynamics than freshly produced butter. The CME futures curve presents quite an interesting carry for new-crop butter and therefore there currently is much more buying interest for fresh butter than normal for this time of the year, and more than sellers are willing to honor. In combination with the fact that the prices are swiftly falling in the EU and in Oceania, it is likely that US export opportunities are becoming under pressure. The current spot price for salted butter is about USD 1.46/lb (3220/t), and for export butter it is USD 1.70-1.75/lb (3800/t), both ex works.
Asia-Pacific
Prices for milkfats are dropping fast
The butter price in APAC dropped by 18% since early November to USD 5400 FOB and it appears that there is further downward potential. Strong production of SMP results in a large supply of butter/AMF and the regional demand for butter is far from abundant. AMF demand in the APAC region, for NZ origin at least, is relatively lively, and this sustained the price for AMF to some extent. AMF is now available at USD 6100 FOB. The outlook for supply remains favorable and therefore the downward price ride may continue for a while longer.
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