Europe

Sentiment rules

During February the EU butter prices have been rising steadily, which triggered producers to reduce stock levels. When buyers noticed some increase in cream prices they stepped in to secure butter purchases at what they felt were reasonable price levels around EUR 5000 ex works. The relative market balance was disturbed by the turmoil in the Middle East when the fear of rising prices for energy and freight created a drastic shift in sentiment. In the first week of March prices tumbled down in just a matter of days to the current price of around EUR 4700 ex works. The market situation is quite clouded at the moment with a volatile futures market, fundamentally good supply and uncertainties about export opportunities that combine into a feeble balance. 

Americas

Low stocks report pushes prices sharply upward

The headline story in the US butter market is the Cold Storage report figure for January, which turned out 15% lower than average and the lowest level reported in 5 years. Futures immediately jumped by USD 30-40cts/lb and the spot price level briefly surpassed EUR 2.13/lb. At the moment some of the dust has settled and the current spot price is about USD 2.02/lb (4450/t) ex works with strong support at this level. Milk production in the US is good but there remains a lot of pull from Class III products, leaving a little less for Class IV (Butter/NFDM). Cream prices are trending higher against very low last year comparables and this explains why there are not a lot of offers of butter. Demand is very strong, both for bulk and for retail butter and exports continue to flourish. In Asia the forward market is backwardated and therefore export opportunities to that region are restricted to nearby dates. Looking ahead there is further upward price momentum as the US butter market will not easily be able to recover the current low stock levels. 

Asia-Pacific

Butter price surges

The butter market in the Asia Pacific remains very firm, with limited availability and good demand. China was the dominant buyer in the early March GDT session for butter, with SE Asia and the Middle East following at a large distance. AMF displayed a broader buyer base, with South America absorbing almost as much as China whilst SE Asia and the Middle East took slightly smaller chunks. Outside GDT the butter price rose to USD 7050 FOB, which means it is returning to the peak price levels that we have been recording around the Q1-Q3 period of 2025. The graph below provides a longer price period to illustrate this. Note that the early March butter price is about 15% higher than the level we quoted just one month ago. The AMF price rose to USD 7300 FOB, a more modest increase vs last month of 4%. Uncertainty is quickly growing in relation to the conflict in the Middle East, which is disrupting trade flows and creating economic headwind, making the markets very unpredictable. 

The February / March 2026 price surge for butter ends a steep decline that started in H2 of 2025, when the butter prices in the Asia Pacific region came off their peak level. In May 2025 we recorded a record level of USD 8050 FOB, which is still 15% higher than the current level of USD 7050.