FCMP
Surprisingly strong Chinese buying appetite
Europe
Balanced market
FCMP in the EU is remarkably steady, with the price levels for up to 4 quarters forward being surprisingly flat. The fair value is about EUR 3950-4000 ex works and that is also the market price at the moment. There has been some buying appetite from chocolate producers in the EU recently. The world market remains out of reach, even though the prices in APAC and Latin America have been appreciating recently. With the FFMP price being at about EUR 3300 ex works there is also no buying interest to be expected from that side.
Americas
Discount vs NZ powder provides comfort to the sell side
The FCMP market in Latin America is firm. There are very few offers remaining for 2026 as suppliers are holding back because of the increasing uncertainties about the effect that El Nino may have on availability from December/January onwards. At the moment there is already heavy rainfall in Uruguay, Argentina and Southern Brazil and weather has generally been a little more unpredictable than normal. However, Brazilian milk production is still good and is largely able to cover domestic demand. Prices are currently around USD 3950-4000 FOB which is at a discount versus NZ. The upside potential in NZ is also being felt in Latin America, particularly after the demand from Algeria that emerged some 10 days ago.
Asia-Pacific
Chinese buying gives the market a further push
The APAC market is on a roll. The milk protein boom is also affecting the FCMP market, but the dominance of China on the early November GDT had an even larger effect. Local Chinese milk prices have risen to USD 0.52 which makes imported powder very competitive. Chinese buying at GDT is expected to remain strong throughout Q1. Outside of GDT the price in the APAC market has risen to USD 4200-4300 ex works and at the current speed of the upward trend market participants are grappling to keep up. Futures prices continue to exceed the GDT levels, which is another indication of the strength of the demand that keeps on outpacing the supply growth.
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